Vice President Aaron Rodgers? Don’t Count on It.

Jets’ Quarterback Aaron Rodgers (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

THE BOX SCORE

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is considering NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers as his running mate.
A Kennedy/Rodgers ticket can’t win.
Rodgers could play quarterback while campaigning for the White House.
The biggest advantage Rodgers brings as VP is media coverage, especially if he’s under center in the fall.
I have no idea why Rodgers would want to run.

THE COMPLETE GAME

Last week, it emerged that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had several conversations with NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers and pro wrestler/actor/former Minnesota governor Jesse Ventura about serving as his running mate in 2024.

Is Kennedy nuts? Maybe, but not when it comes to his VP choice.

I’ll focus on Rodgers as VP because he is the more intriguing choice. I’ll also set aside what I think of Kennedy and Rodgers’s politics to focus on three questions: (1) Could a Kennedy/Rodgers ticket win? (2) Could Rodgers run while playing quarterback for the Jets? (3) Why would Kennedy choose Rodgers, and why would Rodgers accept?

Could a Kennedy/Rodgers ticket win?

No.

As I discuss in “You’re Voting Wrong,” third-party candidates don’t stand a chance in U.S. presidential elections because of the winner-take-all voting system. Americans hate throwing away their vote on a hopeless cause, so most people who like a minor party candidate end up voting for the least objectionable major party candidate. Of the 11 percent of Americans who currently say they will vote for Robert Kennedy Jr., only around 1 percent actually will.

But most Americans don’t want a Biden-Trump rematch.

True.

Sixty-seven percent of Americans are tired of Biden and Trump and want someone new. And Kennedy is the only one not currently underwater in favorability ratings:

And didn’t you say that athletes make outstanding political candidates?

Yes, I did, and they do.

In Athletes in U.S. Elections, I show that former athletes win 74 percent of their primary races and 81 percent of their general elections.

So, isn’t 2024 primed for a third-party challenge, especially with Rodgers on the ticket?

Nope. Here’s why:

A Kennedy/Rodgers ticket isn’t popular enough to overcome the disadvantages of being a third party. To get into Hail Mary range, Kennedy needs to poll around 30 percent or better, not at his current 11 percent range. Moreover, their main issue seems to be vaccine hesitancy, and there aren’t enough anti-vaxxers to make it a viable ticket.
Kennedy/Rodgers will have a hard time getting on the ballot in all 50 states.
Kennedy/Rodgers voters are too spread out. The last time a third-party candidate won a significant number of electoral votes was in 1968, when George Wallace carried five southern states by promising a return to segregation. Third-party candidates can’t win; those without strong regional support really can’t win.
While some Americans might be on the fence between a major or minor party candidate, most are dead certain about who they don’t want to see in the White House. If a vote for Kennedy/Rodgers means a vote for Trump, people on the Left will stick with Biden. If a Kennedy/Rodgers vote means four more years of Biden, those on the Right will vote for Trump.
The argument that “A vote for [third-party candidate] is a vote for [hated major party candidate]” resonates most strongly in tight elections, and this election promises to be close.

Could Rodgers run while playing quarterback for the Jets?

Yes, for a couple of reasons.

First, it’s been done before.

Hall of Famer Bob St. Clair served as a city council member (1958) and mayor of Daly City (1961) while playing tackle for the San Francisco 49ers (1953-1963).
World Light Heavyweight Champion Archie Moore ran an unsuccessful campaign for the California Assembly in 1960 while defending his belt.
In 1989, Reggie Williams played linebacker for the Bengals while serving in the Cincinnati City Council.
NFL offensive lineman Jon Runyan (R-NJ) was setting up a congressional campaign while preparing to play the 2010 season.
And it’s been done recently from within the Jets organization. Jets owner Woody Johnson served as U.S. ambassador to the UK from 2017 to 2021, although he didn’t have to run a campaign since ambassadors are appointed. Still, if the top dog can have a side hustle, why not the starting quarterback?

Of course, none of these athletes-turned-politicians ran for vice president while still playing. (Incidentally, Rodgers wouldn’t be the only NFL quarterback to have run for vice president. Former AFL MVP Jack Kemp was Bob Dole’s running mate in 1996, but his playing days were long over by then.)

Second, I don’t expect working two jobs will be difficult for Rodgers. Campaigning as a running mate is a breeze compared to heading the ticket. Third parties also have a different playbook, and we shouldn’t expect Rodgers to follow Kennedy on a whistle-stop tour of battleground states. But most importantly, Rodgers is far more valuable to Kennedy under center than on the stump. I’ll return to this point in a bit.

Third, at 40, Rodgers is no rookie. He knows the playbook. He’ll also need something to do if he gets a season-ending injury four snaps into the season.

What does Kennedy and Rodgers get out of the ticket?

Kennedy gets a lot.

The biggest thing that Rodgers brings to the ticket is media coverage, which Kennedy desperately needs. There is no way Kennedy can raise enough campaign cash to be a viable candidate. Getting Americans to vote for a third party is hard enough; getting them to donate their hard-earned money to a hopeless campaign is like squeezing blood out of a turnip. So, Kennedy can’t buy his way into the race like Perot did with his own money back in 1992. Instead, he must earn it through free media coverage.

The situation is not unlike that of Trump in 2016. Trump was always in the news—his free media coverage was equivalent to approximately $5 billion worth of paid advertisements—so he didn’t have to raise and spend money to reach voters like an average politician. And that is why Rodgers is such an excellent choice for Kennedy.

Imagine if Rodgers runs and plays in 2024. Just as the media was obliged to report on Taylor Swift every time the Chiefs were on, they’ll now have to mention Rodgers’s VP run before, during, and after every game. That type of wide-reaching and sustained publicity is invaluable for Kennedy. As a preview, look at how Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s Google searches peaked after we learned that Rodgers might become his running mate.

What Rodgers gets out of the bargain is less clear. He seems to fancy himself a public intellectual and provocateur, so being on the Kennedy ticket might be right up his alley. Moreover, a decent showing in 2024 could position Rodgers for a future run for public office. However, Rodgers hates distractions, and his run would undoubtedly be one for the Jets. And he has to be smart enough to know he can’t win. Doesn’t he?

Conclusion

Several political commentators have criticized Kennedy for considering Rodgers as VP, given the quarterback’s controversial remarks and political positions. But as any coach knows, you pull out all the stops when you can’t match up. Kennedy needs a Hail Mary, and who better to throw one than Aaron Rodgers?